CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-08-04T04:17:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-08-04T04:17ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26324/-1
CME Note: First of two CMEs seen to the N and W in SOHO/STEREO A imagery in association with a long duration M1.9-class flare near the vicinity of AR13386 (N12W46) and a complex, sympathetic eruptive signature before/after the flare. This CME is directed more northward than the latter CME, appearing bulbous with a protruding leading edge and a wide/faint shock seen predominantly to the N and NE. Arrival signature: Likely an arrival of a flux rope at L1, associated with an increase of B total to over 10nT, with rotation of magnetic field components. Confirmed by the LASSOS team.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-08-07T01:15Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-08-06T14:24Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 865.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v2 u_r = 929.871 Acceleration: -2.02355 % Compiled module: CALDAT. Duration in seconds: 209231.61 Duration in days: 2.4216622 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -2.02 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 506.5 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 06/08/2023 Time: 14:24 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 41.60 hour(s)
Difference: 10.85 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2023-08-05T07:39Z
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